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“2020 will be known for a lot of things, and a record-breaking year for real estate will certainly be one of its more unexpected legacies,” prominent economist Daryl Fairweather said.1 And he’s right: most of us would have expected the housing market to suffer from circumstances like a once-in-a-hundred-years pandemic and historic inventory shortages.

But, rather than a slowdown, we are continuing to experience a surprisingly robust real estate market across the country. And experts estimate that these conditions are likely to last well into the new year. Fannie Mae Senior VP and Chief Economist Doug Duncan predicts that existing home sales will ultimately “be up a percent or more in 2021.” He believes home prices will continue to rise due to limited inventory, but he is confident the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates low into the future, which will be “very good for households.”2

Market conditions like fewer available listings, changing criteria for desired homes, and record-low mortgage rates are changing the way people buy and sell homes, most likely in a lasting way. But this sustained activity, even in the uncertainty that is 2020, proves that our country still views real estate as a sound investment. The only question now is how you can take advantage of the housing market’s “new normal.”



FEWER LISTINGS EQUALS A SELLER’S MARKET

Inventory, meaning the number of homes for sale, is at a record low across the country. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports there are fewer homes on the market today than the association has seen in data going all the way back to 1982.3 Currently, the total housing inventory is about 1.47 million units, which is a decline of 19.2% from one year ago.4

Experts do predict some relief on the horizon. MarketWatch had previously anticipated housing starts would occur at a pace of 1.45 million and building permits would come in at a pace of 1.52 million.5 But it turns out that the market exceeded expectations: compared with last year, housing starts are up 11% and permitting for new homes occurred at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 1.55 million. That represents a 5% increase from August and an 8% increase from a year ago.

For now, the fact that there are fewer listings creates an advantageous housing market for sellers. There are several reasons why.

For one, buyers have to act fast to snap up available homes. As a result, most properties that come on the market stay for an average of just 21 days before they are sold.6 “That is the fastest ever recorded in our monthly series,” says NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.

Another benefit is that sellers are enjoying higher net returns on their listings. This is thanks to the tough competition for homes, which often results in bidding wars between buyers. Nationwide, the median home price in September rose to $311,800. That translates to about $40,000 (15%) more than just a year ago.7

This seller’s market is not simply a product of the pandemic. In fact, in the country’s top 100 metro markets, inventory has been dwindling since the first quarter of 2020.8 This means that even with increased construction, buyers can’t simply wait for things to go back to normal before reentering the market. Rather, all signs indicate that this is the new normal.


What It Means for Homeowners:
These higher home prices show that buyers are willing to spend more on a home right now than they did last year. So, if there ever were a time to list for top dollar—and expect to receive asking price quickly—that time is now. Ask us for a free consultation of your home’s value today.


What It Means for Homebuyers:

Due to low inventory, buyers could easily find themselves in a bidding war. Time is of the essence in a seller’s market, so you’ll need to get your financing in order and be preapproved for a loan before you begin your home search. We can connect you with a trusted mortgage professional to get you started.


BUYERS BENEFIT FROM LOW MORTGAGE RATES AND A BIGGER PLAYING FIELD


Don’t worry, homebuyers. This “new normal” of real estate has benefits for you too.

For example, people used to base their next home purchase on how far the commute was to work or in which public school district it was. But now, thanks to the pandemic shifting the locus of jobs and work, they are free to consider what they need from a home to make it a place they truly want to be in as they work, teach, exercise, cook, and live.

Often, this equates to needing more space in different types of areas. Realtor.com consumer surveys show that people are desiring quieter neighborhoods, home offices, updated kitchens, and access to the great outdoors.9 The search for these criteria is driving residents out of densely populated metropolitan areas and into the suburbs.10 And this exodus from cities is good news for buyers: it opens up more possibilities for inventory that they could not have considered pre-pandemic.

Another advantage for buyers is the record-low mortgage rates. The average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hit a record low in mid-October when rates fell to 2.81%. That’s the lowest since Freddie Mac began conducting the survey in 1971, and well below last year’s 3.69%.11 Similarly, a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage can be had for as low as 2.35% compared to 3.15% a year ago.

Thanks to these rates, buyers are afforded the opportunity to buy nearly $32,000 more home than they could one year ago, while keeping their monthly payment the same.12 So even though home prices are high now, it is currently more affordable to buy a home now than it was last year.

If you want to take advantage of these rock-bottom mortgage rates, you need to act fast. Though rates are projected to stay low, housing economists predict that the window of opportunity to get the best rate could be closing in the coming months. Mike Fratantoni, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association, said he expects the average rate on a 30-year mortgage to rise to 3.5% by the end of 2021.13


What It Means for Homeowners:

Record-low mortgage rates offer you the opportunity to lower your monthly payment—or even take out some equity—with a refinance. With those additional funds, you could even choose to invest in a second home in a new desirable location. Reach out to us for a referral to a trusted mortgage professional or an agent in those markets.


What It Means for Homebuyers:
The time is now to determine how much home you can comfortably afford and make a plan to find it. We can set up a search for you to find homes that best meet your new needs, even if they’re in neighborhoods you wouldn’t have considered before.


A RECORD-SETTING YEAR FOR HOME SALES IS JUST THE BEGINNING


Despite the seemingly adverse buyer conditions, 2020 experienced a 14-year high number of home sales, NAR reports. Existing-home sales, which include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 9.4% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.54 million.14 That’s a 21% increase from a year ago!

Every region of the country has seen a surge in sales activity. According to George Ratiu, senior economist for Realtor.com, part of the reason for these continued sales is that the pandemic has created a paradigm shift in the patterns of real estate.15 For example, housing needs are typically resolved by late summer and early fall to coincide with the commencement of the new school year. With homeschooling and remote work, however, buyers have been freed to continue their home search into the traditionally slow winter months.

Another reason for the robust market is that Millennials are finally putting their money into homeownership. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the homeownership rate for 25-to-34-year-olds rose to 40.7% by the end of last year.16 This is significant because Millennials, the generation of people in their mid-20s to late-30s, currently surpasses Baby Boomers as the nation’s largest living adult generation. As the remaining percentage of this group starts investing in homes in the near future, demand will persist.

All of these factors indicate that the housing market is poised to remain strong as we head into the new year. And as Jonathan Woloshin, head of U.S. real estate at UBS Global Wealth Management, believes, they could “buoy the housing market for years to come.”17


What It Means for Homeowners:
It’s tempting to believe that homes will basically sell themselves in a market like this. But we’re still seeing properties that are overpriced and under-marketed sit unsold. We can help you optimize the process of selling your home so you can get the best possible offer.


What It Means for Homebuyers:

Preparation is key to success in a seller’s market like this, but don’t let yourself become paralyzed. We are here to answer your questions and offer sound advice to guide you through all the options that are available to you.


REAL ESTATE IS A SAFE BET


Your other investments might have been on roller coasters this year, but the real estate market has been steady, competitive, and strong throughout. That makes it a good choice for your financial future.

National real estate numbers can give us a pulse on the market, but real estate happens in our own backyard. As your local market experts, we can help you understand the finer points of the market that impact sales and home values in your own neighborhood. 

If you’re considering buying or selling a home before the new year or in early 2021, contact us now to schedule a free consultation. We’ll work with you to develop an actionable plan to meet your goals.




Sources:

Redfin -
https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-news-september-2020/
Housing Wire -
https://www.housingwire.com/articles/fannie-maes-doug-duncan-offers-his-predictions-for-2021/
CNBC –
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/22/september-existing-home-sales-jump-9point5percent.html
NAHB –
http://eyeonhousing.org/2020/10/existing-home-sales-surge-despite-record-low-supply
MarketWatch –
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-home-construction-slows-slightly-in-august-driven-by-pullback-in-multifamily-starts-2020-09-17
National Association of Realtors –
https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-soar-9-4-to-6-5-million-in-september
Business Insider -
https://www.businessinsider.com/how-2020-broke-the-housing-market-inventory-could-run-out-2020-9
Forbes -
https://www.forbes.com/sites/petertaylor/2020/10/11/covid-19-has-changed-the-housing-market-forever-heres-where-americans-are-moving-and-why/#74e7355761fe
Realtor.com –
https://www.realtor.com/research/top-consumer-home-features-coronavirus/
Wealth Advisor –
https://www.thewealthadvisor.com/article/covid-19-has-changed-housing-market-forever-heres-where-americans-are-moving-and-why
Washington Post -
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/10/15/30-year-mortgage-rate-drops-record-low/
Forbes –
https://www.forbes.com/advisor/mortgages/buying-a-home-low-mortgage-rates/
BankRate -
https://www.bankrate.com/mortgages/refinance-window-could-close-soon/
National Association of Realtors –
https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-soar-9-4-to-6-5-million-in-september
Forbes -
https://www.forbes.com/sites/petertaylor/2020/10/11/covid-19-has-changed-the-housing-market-forever-heres-where-americans-are-moving-and-why/#74e7355761fe
TD Economics –
https://economics.td.com/us-falling-mortgage#:~:text=The%20homeownership%20rate%20among%20millennials,47.7%25%20at%20a%20comparable%20age.&text=This%20means%20that%201.4%20million,that%20of%20the%20older%20generation
Axios Media -
https://www.axios.com/real-estate-market-819e3c85-3765-4014-91c0-b545be6d5935.html

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Roman Shersher at Parkway Estate Properties recently represented us in purchasing a home in LA and did a superb job. With his professional and quality help, we were able to close escrow swiftly and smoothly. He was on top of all the necessary items and procedures every step the way. He even went above and beyond to ensure the move into our new home was done properly. We highly recommend Parkway Estate Properties for anyone who’s looking to buy or sell a home knowing that you would receive the best services from them as we did.

 

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Roman was instrumental in us finding and moving into our new home. He did everything in his power to ensure a smooth transition for us, even going above and beyond to arrange a moving service for me. Roman & Liana also helped arrange a plumber/handyman to help fix some minor things before we moved in. He made sure we felt comfortable with every aspect of the house before moving forward, constantly giving us updates as we navigated many things remotely post-COVID. Would highly recommend Roman Shersher and Parkway Estate Properties for your next property purchase! Thank you, Roman & Liana!

 

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My husband and I just bought our first home thanks to Roman, Liana, and their team at Parkway Estate Properties. They made the whole process very smooth and truly took care of us. We couldn't be more grateful for how professional they were, trustworthy, personable and went above and beyond. They are a great team who we highly recommend to anyone buying or selling their home!

 

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Working with Roman and the Parkway Estate team has been a delightful experience! Roman’s responsiveness, organization, and professionalism throughout the selling process showed me I made the right decision hiring him as my Realtor. I had a unique situation and needed to sell as quickly as possible. He worked with me and my timelines and got multiple offers within a week of listing my property using his incredible marketing tactics to get an offer accepted well-above our asking price! I would recommend Roman and the entire Parkway Estate team to anyone looking to sell their home.

 

~ D

Roman is one of the best brokers I have had the pleasure working with on both commercial and residential transactions. He is respectful, focused, intelligent, tactile, honest, and, most importantly, trustworthy. As his client, you will always feel like you are the priority. I would recommend him to both novice and sophisticated buyers/sellers alike. After working with Roman, working with others will be a difficult and uncomfortable experience.

 

~ Jonathan

Roman was great. We looked for a property for many months and couldn’t find what we wanted or get it accepted once we did. Roman not only beat out another offer but got us $40k off the list price and all the necessary repairs covered fully by the seller!

 

~ Fred

After dealing with a ton of brokers/agents trying to find my dream home for over a year, Roman stepped up to the plate and found me a perfect home within 30 days. He is persistent and follows up daily, while maintaining a professional demeanor. He is also a hell of a negotiator and gets the job done at the price you want. Highly recommend and will definitely use in any future real estate deals.

 

~ Jeff

Roman was our agent who sold our old house and helped us buy a new one. Our experience was unbelievably great, he is a very loyal professional, honest and very fair. He fights for you, and doesn't pressure you into making any moves that you are not comfortable with. Technology made life so easy for us to be able to just sign over the phone without any problems. He will definitely be our agent if we would want to make any kind of move in the future. He is trustworthy and take his business seriously I really appreciated his hard work

 

~ Tammy

Roman was sought for his house flipping expertise. Our house required work thus someone familiar with rehab projects was a big plus. From start he explained the pros and cons of various approaches to consider making the decision process easily comprehensible. Where he really shined was in escrow. He brought in multiple buyers and finessed a sweetheart close. Roman is a true professional with integrity.

 

~ Alex

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~ Gerry

I would recommend my friends and strangers that are going through difficult times with their housing problems to talk to Roman, he can help you work it out!

 

~ Oscar

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