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Last year, one factor drove the real estate market more than any other: rising mortgage rates. 

In March 2022, the Federal Reserve began a series of interest rate hikes in an effort to pump the brakes on inflation.1 And while some market sectors have been slow to respond, the housing market has reacted accordingly.

Both demand and price appreciation have tapered, as the primary challenge for homebuyers has shifted from availability to affordability. And although this higher-mortgage rate environment has been a painful adjustment for many buyers and sellers, it should ultimately lead to a more stable and balanced real estate market.

So what can we expect in 2023? Will mortgage rates continue to climb? Could home prices come crashing down? While this is one of the more challenging real estate periods to forecast, here’s what several industry experts predict will happen to the U.S. housing market in the coming year.


MORTGAGE RATES WILL FLUCTUATE LESS

In 2022, 30-year fixed mortgage rates surged from roughly 3% in January to around 7%. According to Rick Sharga of real estate data company ATTOM, “We’ve never seen rates double in so short a period.”2

This year, economists forecast a less dramatic shift.

In an interview with Bankrate, Nadia Evangelou, senior economist for the National Association of Realtors, shares her vision of three possible mortgage rate scenarios:3 

Inflation continues to surge, forcing the Fed to repeatedly raise interest rates. In that scenario, she predicts that rates could reach as high as 8.5%.
Inflation decelerates and mortgage rates follow suit, averaging 7 to 7.5% for the year.
Rising interest rates trigger a recession, which could ultimately lead mortgage rates to drop closer to 5% by the end of the year.

Realtor.com forecasts something similar to scenario #2 above: “Mortgage rates will average 7.4% in 2023, trickling down to 7.1% by year’s end.”4 The Mortgage Bankers Association, however, projects something closer to Evangelou’s scenario #3, with the 30-year fixed rate declining steadily throughout the year, averaging 6.2% in Q1 and 5.2% by Q4.5

Economists at Fannie Mae fall somewhere in the middle. In a recent press release, they predicted that the U.S. economy will experience a “modest recession” this year.6 But in their December Housing Forecast, they project that 30-year fixed mortgage rates will only fall by half a point from an average of 6.5% in Q1 to 6.0% in Q4.7

“From our perspective, the good news is that demographics remain favorable for housing, so the sector appears well-positioned to help lead the economy out of what we expect will be a brief recession,” said Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan.6

What does it mean for you?  Even the experts can’t say for certain where mortgage rates are headed. Instead of trying to ”time the market,” focus instead on buying or selling a home when the time is right for you. There are a variety of mortgage options available that can make a home purchase more affordable, including adjustable rates, points, and buydowns—and keep in mind you can always refinance down the road. We’d be happy to refer you to a trusted mortgage professional who can outline your best options.


SALES VOLUME WILL FALL AND INVENTORY WILL RISE

It looks like the home-buying frenzy we experienced in recent years is behind us. While the desire to own a home remains strong, higher mortgage rates have made it unaffordable for a large segment of would-be buyers. 

Many economists expect the number of home sales to continue to decline this year, leading to an increase in listing inventory and days-on-market, or the time it takes to sell a home. But, there is a wide range when it comes to specifics.

Economists at Fannie Mae forecast that total home sales will fall by around 20% this year before rising again by nearly 15% in 2024.7 National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun projects a less extreme dip of 7% in 2023 with a rebound of 10% next year.8

Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale foresees something in between. “The deceleration in home sales is likely to continue as high home prices and mortgage rates limit the pool of eligible home buyers. We anticipate that existing home sales will decline another 14.1% in 2023.” She expects this drop in sales to lead to a nearly 23% increase in inventory levels this year, offering more choices for buyers who have struggled to find a home in the past.9

However, given the severe lack of housing supply, even with a double-digit increase, the market is expected to remain relatively tight and below pre-pandemic levels. Hale points out: “It’s important to keep historical context in mind. The level of inventory in 2023 is expected to fall roughly 15% short of the 2019 average.”9

What does it mean for you?  If you’ve been frustrated by a lack of inventory in the past, 2023 may bring new opportunities for you to find the perfect home. And today’s buyers have more negotiating power than they’ve had in years. Contact us to find out about current and future listings that meet your criteria.

If you’re hoping to sell, you may want to act fast; rising inventory levels will mean increased competition. We can help you chart the best course to maximize your profits, starting with a professional assessment of your home’s current market value. Reach out to schedule a free consultation.


HOME PRICES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE

While some economists expect home prices to fall this year, many expect them to remain fairly stable. “For most parts of the country, home prices are holding steady since available inventory is extremely low,” said Yun at a November conference.8

Nationally, Yun expects the average median home price to tick up by 1% in 2023, with some markets experiencing greater appreciation and others experiencing declines.8 Economists at Fannie Mae offer a similar projection, forecasting a slight decrease in their Home Price Index of about 1.5%, year-over-year.7

Other experts foresee a larger fluctuation. Hale expects U.S. home prices to rise by 5.4% this year, while Morgan Stanley is forecasting a 7% drop from the peak in June 2022.9,10

Still, many economists agree that a housing market crash like the one we experienced in 2008 is highly unlikely. The factors that caused home prices to plunge during the Great Recession—specifically lax lending standards and a surplus of inventory—aren’t prevalent in our current market.10 Therefore, home values are expected to remain comparatively stable.

What does it mean for you?  It can feel scary to buy a home when there’s uncertainty in the market. However, real estate is a long-term investment that has been shown to appreciate over time. And keep in mind that the best bargains are often found in a slower market, like the one we’re experiencing right now. Contact us to discuss your goals and budget. We can help you make an informed decision about the right time to buy.

And if you’re planning to sell this year, you’ll want to chart your path carefully to maximize your profits. Contact us for recommendations and to find out what your home could sell for in today’s market.


RENT PRICES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB

Affordability challenges for would-be buyers, inflationary pressures, and an overall lack of housing could continue to drive “above-average” rent price increases in much of the country.11 The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas expects year-over-year rental price growth to tick up to 8.4% in May before moderating later in the year.12

According to Hale, “U.S. renters will continue to face challenges from limited supply and excess demand in the coming year that will keep upward pressure on rent growth. At a national level, we forecast rent growth of 6.3% in the next 12 months, somewhat ahead of home price growth and historical rent trends.”9

However, there are signs that the surge in rent prices could be tapering. According to Jay Parsons, head of economics for rental housing software company RealPage, there’s some evidence of a slowdown in demand. He predicts that market-rate rents will rise just 3.3% this year. Still, analysts agree that a return to lower pre-pandemic rental prices is unlikely.10

What does it mean for you?  Rent prices are expected to keep climbing. But you can lock in a set mortgage payment and build long-term wealth by putting that money toward a home purchase instead. Reach out for a free consultation to discuss your options. 

And if you’ve ever thought about purchasing a rental property, now may be a perfect time. Call today to get your investment property search started.


WE’RE HERE TO GUIDE YOU

While national real estate forecasts can provide a “big picture” outlook, real estate is local. And as local market experts, we can guide you through the ins and outs of our market and the issues most likely to impact sales and drive home values in your particular neighborhood. 

If you’re considering buying or selling a home in 2023, contact us now to schedule a free consultation. We’ll work with you to develop an action plan to meet your real estate goals this year.


Sources:
Forbes- https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/fed-funds-rate-history/
Bankrate- https://www.bankrate.com/mortgages/will-mortgage-rates-go-up-in-december-2022/
Bankrate- https://www.bankrate.com/real-estate/housing-market-predictions-2023/
Realtor.com- https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/2023-the-year-of-the-homebuyer-our-bold-predictions-on-home-prices-mortgage-rates-and-more/
Mortgage Bankers Association- https://www.mba.org/docs/default-source/research-and-forecasts/forecasts/mortgage-finance-forecast-dec-2022.pdf?sfvrsn=b584bf7_1
Fannie Mae- https://www.fanniemae.com/newsroom/fannie-mae-news/economy-still-expected-enter-and-exit-modest-recession-2023
Fannie Mae- https://www.fanniemae.com/media/45801/display
National Association of Realtors- https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nars-lawrence-yun-predicts-us-home-prices-wont-experience-major-decline-could-possibly-rise-slightly
Realtor.com- https://www.realtor.com/research/2023-national-housing-forecast/
The New York Times- https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/04/realestate/housing-market-interest-rates.html
CNBC- https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/28/how-much-higher-rent-will-go-in-2023-according-to-experts.html
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas- https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2022/0816


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My husband and I just bought our first home thanks to Roman, Liana, and their team at Parkway Estate Properties. They made the whole process very smooth and truly took care of us. We couldn't be more grateful for how professional they were, trustworthy, personable and went above and beyond. They are a great team who we highly recommend to anyone buying or selling their home!

 

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Working with Roman and the Parkway Estate team has been a delightful experience! Roman’s responsiveness, organization, and professionalism throughout the selling process showed me I made the right decision hiring him as my Realtor. I had a unique situation and needed to sell as quickly as possible. He worked with me and my timelines and got multiple offers within a week of listing my property using his incredible marketing tactics to get an offer accepted well-above our asking price! I would recommend Roman and the entire Parkway Estate team to anyone looking to sell their home.

 

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Roman was great. We looked for a property for many months and couldn’t find what we wanted or get it accepted once we did. Roman not only beat out another offer but got us $40k off the list price and all the necessary repairs covered fully by the seller!

 

~ Fred

After dealing with a ton of brokers/agents trying to find my dream home for over a year, Roman stepped up to the plate and found me a perfect home within 30 days. He is persistent and follows up daily, while maintaining a professional demeanor. He is also a hell of a negotiator and gets the job done at the price you want. Highly recommend and will definitely use in any future real estate deals.

 

~ Jeff

Roman was our agent who sold our old house and helped us buy a new one. Our experience was unbelievably great, he is a very loyal professional, honest and very fair. He fights for you, and doesn't pressure you into making any moves that you are not comfortable with. Technology made life so easy for us to be able to just sign over the phone without any problems. He will definitely be our agent if we would want to make any kind of move in the future. He is trustworthy and take his business seriously I really appreciated his hard work

 

~ Tammy

Roman was sought for his house flipping expertise. Our house required work thus someone familiar with rehab projects was a big plus. From start he explained the pros and cons of various approaches to consider making the decision process easily comprehensible. Where he really shined was in escrow. He brought in multiple buyers and finessed a sweetheart close. Roman is a true professional with integrity.

 

~ Alex

It has been a wonderful experience working with Roman. I found him business-like, cordial, flexible, knowledgeable, and FUN! He was very reliable and I’m pleased indeed with him. A sincere person he is.

 

~ Gerry

I would recommend my friends and strangers that are going through difficult times with their housing problems to talk to Roman, he can help you work it out!

 

~ Oscar

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